Haute Lumière
Commerce · IV.07 · MMXXVI · daylight
Volume IV — Production and Regeneration
How this mechanism reads from inside a gainshare: what to measure, what to claim, how the ledger treats it, and what to ask for. Every figure is computed in lib/verify/IV_07.py.
A gainshare pays you a defined share of a measured improvement against an agreed baseline. Three words carry all the weight: measured, agreed, and baseline. If any one of them is missing, what you have is a bonus scheme with better vocabulary.
Supply-chain work is unusually good gainshare material and unusually badly claimed, for one structural reason: most of its value is a cost that did not happen. An audit you cancelled is visible. A stoppage you prevented is invisible, and invisible savings are the ones that get absorbed into general performance at the moment somebody else is being promoted.
This workbook is about making the invisible part countable in advance. Not after the good thing happens — before, because a baseline agreed after the fact is not a baseline, it is a negotiation you will lose.
There are three claimable categories here, and they differ in how hard they are to defend:
| Category | Evidence | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|
| Cash out — duplicate audits cancelled, expediting avoided | Invoices | Easy. Claim it first. |
Risk reduced — a lower q, a shorter recovery time | A computed expectation against a signed model | Medium. Needs the model agreed up front. |
Reach extended — enforcement depth n* | A computed depth against a stated configuration | Hard, and the most valuable. |
Claim in that order. The first funds the credibility for the third.
1.1 — Find the duplicated audits. Pull the audit register and the vendor list. Find every site your firm inspects that is also inspected by a group scheme your firm or your customers already subscribe to. In the chapter's reference unit, 66 direct suppliers at $6,000 each against $750 through a shared scheme is:
66 × ($6,000 − $750) = $346,500 a year
That is cash, it is on invoices, and it does not depend on anybody believing a model. It is the strongest gainshare claim in this chapter and it is sitting in a filing system right now.
1.2 — Find the unpriced knowledge. Who in the building knows something about tier two that is written nowhere? The buyer who visited the plant in 2019. The engineer who knows which alloy mill actually pours the billet. The planner who knows which two "independent" suppliers ship through the same port.
Write it down and put your name and the date on it. Knowledge that lives in a person is not claimable; knowledge in a dated document is. This is not bureaucracy — it is the difference between being valuable and being able to demonstrate that you were.
1.3 — Find the near misses. Every incident in the last three years where a supply problem nearly stopped a line and did not. Ask what actually saved it. The answer is almost always a relationship, a buffer, or somebody's private knowledge — and each of those is a mechanism your firm currently gets for free and does not maintain.
1.4 — Get the event cost signed. Contribution margin per day, expediting, penalties, customer loss. Take it to finance and have them sign it before you propose anything. Every risk-reduction claim you make will be multiplied by this number, and an unsigned multiplier is a claim somebody can zero in a meeting.
2.1 — The cash claim. Straightforward and it should be in the ledger in week six:
duplicate audits cancelled $346,500 /yr
gainshare pool at 20% $69,300 /yr
team of six, equal share $11,550 each /yr
Note what makes this defensible: an invoice that used to exist and now does not, against a supplier list that did not change. Nobody can argue that the savings were caused by the market.
2.2 — The risk claim, done properly. This is the one that requires the model agreed in advance. Suppose your mapping work finds that four "independent" sources for two families all ship through one port, and moving one source reduces the common-mode term from q = 0.015 to q = 0.009:
ΔP = 0.006
event cost (signed) $28,000,000
expected annual saving = 0.006 × 28,000,000 = $168,000 /yr
gainshare pool at 20% $33,600 /yr
The rule that makes this claimable: the model is agreed before the change, not after. Write one page — the failure model, the two values of q, the signed event cost, the arithmetic — and get it countersigned by finance and operations in month one. Then the payment is a computation rather than an argument.
And be honest in both directions, because it is what makes the whole ledger trustworthy: an expected saving is not a realised one. If your scheme pays on expectation, say so in the document. If it pays on realisation, you are being paid for the absence of an event, which means you must also agree in advance what happens if an event occurs for an unrelated reason.
2.3 — The reach claim. The hardest and the most valuable, because nobody else in your organisation can currently compute it.
n* = 1 + ln(V₁/C₁) / ln(b/λ)
before C₁ = 66 × 6,000 = $396,000 n* = 1.718 tiers
after C₁ = 66 × 750 = $49,500 n* = 2.364 tiers
gain +0.646 tiers
A tier is not a currency, so do not try to claim it as one. Claim it as the capability metric in your scheme — the thing that moves your band, your scope or your title — and claim the cash beside it. In every gainshare negotiation, the cash gets you paid this year and the capability metric gets you paid for the next five.
2.4 — What not to claim. Three things, named so you do not burn credibility on them:
3.1 — Write the one-page measurement agreement. Four sections, countersigned before any work starts.
n* with its inputs, current disclosure rate with its denominator.P(all m fail) = q + (1−q)p^m, the values of p and q you are using, and where they came from.3.2 — Build the instruments that make the ledger self-maintaining. Three, all cheap:
E beside every family in the risk register, with the formula in the column header so the sort survives a handover.n*, tier-two disclosure rate, families with a written source-count justification, and spend covered by a dated map with the remainder stated.3.3 — Ask for the right thing. When the gainshare conversation opens, the three asks that actually compound:
4.1 — Get the ledger into the standing pack. A gainshare that is reported by exception is a gainshare that is paid by exception. One line in the monthly operations pack: baseline, current, delta, pool, paid.
4.2 — Publish the arithmetic, not the conclusion. Put the inputs beside every number you report. The first colleague who checks one of your figures and finds it exact is the person who will defend your claim in a room you are not in — and that is worth more than any presentation you will give yourself.
4.3 — Hand one piece away deliberately. Give the exposure-ratio column to somebody in quality or engineering and let them own it. You lose a little credit and you gain a mechanism that no longer depends on your enthusiasm, which is the only form of job security that survives a reorganisation.
4.4 — Watch for the three ways this stops paying.
n moves for reasons that have nothing to do with you. Fix it by reporting n with its inputs every month, so a change in N₁ is visible as a change in N₁.On delight. There is a particular pleasure in this work that has nothing to do with the payment. It is the first time somebody senior asks a question about the upstream and you already have the answer on one page with its inputs printed — and the pleasure is not being right, it is watching the room stop guessing. The second pleasure is better: the meeting where somebody uses your enforcement depth figure in their own argument, for their own purposes, without attributing it. That is the moment a computation becomes infrastructure. It has stopped being yours, which is exactly what you wanted.
Ten questions. If you cannot answer one of them, that is this week's work.
Question nine is the one that separates a scheme that will pay from a scheme that will litigate. A scheme with no written exclusions has not been thought about yet, and the time to fix that is before the money exists.
You will get roughly four minutes. Use them in this order.
"Three things. First, we are paying for the same factory inspection twice — once ourselves and once through a scheme our customers already fund. Cancelling the duplicates on sixty-six suppliers saves $346,500 a year and the evidence is invoices."
"Second, the same change extends the reach of our code of conduct from 1.718 tiers to 2.364. I can show you the arithmetic; the inputs are our own supplier count and our own audit cost."
"Third, I want the measurement agreement signed before I start, not after. One page, the baseline and the exclusions, countersigned by finance. If the saving is real it will show up in invoices within two quarters, and if it is not I would rather we found that out on a page than in a year."
The third paragraph is the one that gets the first two believed. An employee who asks to be measured against a signed baseline, and who names the exclusions before anyone else does, is asking for something no scheme has a reason to refuse.