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Commerce · IV.11 · MMXXVI · daylight
For the person working inside a gainshare arrangement — where a defined share of verified improvement returns to the people who created it. This is the chapter where the gain might be negative, and that is exactly why it is the one worth reading carefully: the schemes that survive a permanent premium are the ones where somebody understood the arithmetic before the first bad statement arrived.
Every other chapter in this volume gives you a gain to share. This one gives you a cost that will not come down, and the question of who carries it.
That question decides whether your scheme is honest. A gainshare measured against a baseline that included cheap virgin material, in a business that has since committed to expensive recycled material, will show a loss every period — forever — and the loss will be attributed to the people on the floor. They did not cause it. They cannot fix it. And within about four periods they will stop believing the mechanism, which is the end of the scheme whether or not anybody writes it down.
A permanent premium that lands inside a gain measure is the fastest way to break a gainshare, and it is entirely preventable with one clause. This workbook is about that clause, and about the things you genuinely can move.
Exercise 1.1 — Decompose your own gain measure (2 hours)
Take the scheme document and write out the measure as a formula. Then, term by term, mark each input as one of three things:
The third category is the one that matters here. If any item in category three sits inside your gain measure without a carve-out, your scheme has a structural leak, and it will be blamed on you.
Exercise 1.2 — Find the premium's real driver (1 hour)
For each category-three item, ask the chapter's question: what would make this cost fall?
If the answer is "doing more of it," it is temporary and it will wash out. If the answer is "people living closer together," "wages not rising," or "land being cheaper," it is permanent.
Worked, from the chapter: a virgin-to-recycled polymer spread of £350/t looks closable — plausible learning rates cross after 2.84 doublings, about 7.1× volume. But decompose it: kerbside collection at £1.10 per stop and 0.45 kg per stop is £2,444/t, which is 6.98 times the whole spread, and it is a driver and a vehicle at a door. Deposit-return collection at 2.60 kg per stop is £423/t — 5.78× cheaper. The same material can be a temporary premium or a permanent one depending only on how it arrives.
This decomposition is a claim you can make in a room and almost nobody else in the building will have done it.
Exercise 1.3 — Find where the firm already pays one well (2 hours)
Ask around. Somewhere your firm already pays a permanent premium deliberately: a supplier nobody re-tenders, a specification nobody relaxes, a process kept because a customer requires it. Find who runs it and ask what they get for it and who holds the avoided cost.
You are looking for the internal precedent, because the clause you are about to ask for is far easier to obtain as a second instance than as a first.
Exercise 2.1 — The carve-out, computed (2 hours)
The clause you want is short and it is standard practice in well-run schemes:
Where the firm commits to an input whose premium over the prior specification is classified as permanent, that premium is excluded from the gain measure at a fixed rate per unit, restated annually, and disclosed.
Compute what it is worth on your line. If the premium is £X per tonne and your line consumes T tonnes a period, the carve-out is £X × T — the amount that would otherwise be deducted from a pool you are paid out of.
Worked: at £350/t on 400 t a quarter, the carve-out is £140,000 a quarter of measured "loss" that is not yours. At a 20 per cent share that is £28,000 a quarter of gainshare that the absence of one clause removes from your team.
Exercise 2.2 — Learn to compute p*, because it tells you what is coming (90 minutes)
p < p* = m + s + τ · λ / (λ + w)
You will not be the one signing, but you should be able to read the firm's answer, because p* tells you how much of a material the firm can afford to switch — and therefore how much change is actually coming to your line.
Worked from the chapter: m = £60/t measured revenue premium, s = £40/t avoided direct cost, τ = £217.85/t levy, λ = 0.15 (6.67 years expected), w = 0.09. Then λ/(λ+w) = 0.625, credit £136.16/t, p* = £236.16/t against a premium of £350/t — a ratio of 1.48×.
Read that as an operator: the firm will switch the 30 per cent threshold tonnage, where £105/t of premium extinguishes £217.85/t of certain levy for a net £112.85/t, and will not switch the rest. So plan for a partial changeover, not a full one — and say so early, because the difference between those two is a very different production schedule.
Exercise 2.3 — Find the gain that IS yours (2 hours)
A permanent input premium is not yours. Everything downstream of it is, and this is where a switch actually pays a floor team.
p moving. It is the largest single gain available on the floor and it is almost never measured.Exercise 2.4 — The claim register (1 hour)
One page, four columns: what changed · what it is worth per period · how it was measured · who verified. Fill it weekly. A claim written the week it happens costs one line; the same claim reconstructed at period end costs an argument you will lose.
Exercise 3.1 — Ask for the four clauses (one meeting, prepared)
Take these four, in this order, with the arithmetic from Part Two attached.
p returns to the team for a stated term.Exercise 3.2 — Write the falsifier with them (30 minutes)
When the firm classifies a premium as permanent for the purposes of your carve-out, ask for the observation that would change it, and the review date. This protects both sides: it stops a carve-out outliving the premium it was written for, and it stops anybody quietly reclassifying mid-year.
Offer the chapter's own case as the reason, because it is the strongest argument in the room and it is not on your side. In 2012 the UK's cost reduction task force set £100/MWh by 2020 for offshore wind as a stretch target and the industry regarded the rest of the premium as structural. The 2017 auction cleared at £57.50/MWh — 42.5 per cent below the target, 3 years early. Premiums called permanent do sometimes end. A carve-out with a review date is honest; one without is a subsidy nobody agreed to.
Exercise 3.3 — The two-way principle, explained once (20 minutes)
If your firm signs a spread contract for difference — a strike spread, a published reference, two-way settlement — understand what you will see, because it looks alarming on a P&L line and is not.
At a strike of £320/t against an observed spread of £350/t, the supplier pays your firm £360,000 a year on 12,000 t. When the spread falls to £240/t, your firm pays the supplier £960,000 a year. That second number is not a loss. It is the hedge doing exactly what it was bought to do, and the firm's input cost is flat across both. A gain measure that treats CfD settlements as operating variance will produce nonsense in both directions. Ask for them to be excluded explicitly.
Exercise 4.1 — Get the carve-out into the standing pack
Not into the scheme document only — into the monthly pack, as a named line: permanent premium excluded from gain measure, £X this period. A number in the pack survives a change of plant manager. A clause in a document three levels deep does not.
Exercise 4.2 — Recruit the second reader
One person, not on your team, who reads the gain statement each period and checks the carve-out was applied. Give them the credit for the first catch. One person checking is a habit; two is a practice, and the author is always the one who cannot see the error.
Exercise 4.3 — Delight, on purpose
There is a real pleasure available here and it is worth naming, because it is what keeps people doing this work.
It is the period where a statement comes back and the carve-out line is on it, and nobody had to argue. The team's number reflects what the team actually did. Somebody on the floor points at a line and says that one is ours — and is right, and can prove it.
That is what a legible mechanism feels like from inside, and it is the whole reason for insisting on the clause. A scheme you can read is a scheme you can trust, and a scheme you can trust is one people contribute to on a Tuesday when nobody is watching.
Exercise 4.4 — Write down what you learned, where it will be found (20 minutes)
At the end of each period, add one line to a shared note: what you claimed, what the number turned out to be, and how you knew. That last column is the only one another person can reuse, and it is the difference between a team that accumulates judgement and one that starts again every time somebody leaves.
It also protects the carve-out. When the review date arrives and somebody asks whether the premium is still permanent, the answer should be a short history with figures in it rather than an opinion held by whoever happens to be in the room that morning. A period-by-period record of the collection cost per tonne, the spread, and the levy rate is four numbers a quarter and it settles the question in a minute.
Answer each in writing. An unanswered line is your next conversation.
| Answer | |
|---|---|
| Is any permanent input premium inside my gain measure? | |
| Is there a carve-out clause, in writing, with a rate per unit? | |
| Does the carve-out have a falsifier and a review date? | |
| Are CfD or hedge settlements excluded from operating variance? | |
| Is yield on premium material weighted for its higher value? | |
| Does the baseline restate on the date a specification changes? | |
| Is the carve-out a named line in the standing monthly pack? | |
| Who verifies it, and when? |
"The business has committed to a material that costs more and will keep costing more — the collection cost is a van at a door and it does not fall with volume. That premium is currently inside our gain measure, which means our statement shows a loss of about £140,000 a quarter that nobody on the floor caused and nobody on the floor can move.
I am not asking for the premium to be reversed. I think the switch is right, and p says the threshold tonnage pays for itself: £105 a tonne of premium extinguishing £217.85 a tonne of levy. I am asking for the standard carve-out, at a fixed rate per tonne, restated annually, with a review date and a written falsifier so it does not outlive the premium.*
And I am asking for one thing in exchange. Yield on the premium stream is worth 31.8 per cent more than yield on the old stream. Weight it that way in the measure and we will go and get it."
That is the whole conversation. It concedes what should be conceded, it asks for what the arithmetic supports, and it offers something real in return — which is why it works.